Big Quake Predicted To Hit Tokyo

In Asia, Earthquakes & Tsunamis, News Headlines, Scientific Reports

A leading earthquake research centre says the risk of a big quake hitting Tokyo within the next few years could be as high as 70 per cent.

Researchers at the University of Tokyo’s earthquake research institute based the figure on data from the growing number of tremors in the capital since last year’s March 11 earthquake off north-east Japan, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported.

Experts believe last year’s magnitude-9.0 quake has increased the risk of more big tremors.

Seismic activity has intensified along Japan’s east coast since the quake struck, with significant tremors shaking Tokyo about five times more frequently than in usual years.

According to the meteorological agency, an average of 1.48 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from three to six have occurred per day in and near Tokyo since March.

That is around five times as many as before the disaster, the researchers said, according to the Yomiuri.

The magnitude-9.0 earthquake last year and the resulting tsunami left more than 19,000 people dead or missing and crippled the cooling systems at the Fukushima nuclear power station, causing meltdowns in some of its reactors.

The last time a “big one” struck Tokyo was in 1923, when the magnitude-7.9 Great Kanto Earthquake claimed more than 100,000 lives, many of them in fires.

Previously, in 1855, the Ansei Edo quake also devastated the city.

Japan, located on the tectonic crossroads known as the Pacific Ring of Fire and dotted with volcanoes, is one of the world’s most quake-prone countries, with Tokyo lying in one of its most dangerous areas.

The megacity sits on the intersection of three continental plates – the Eurasian, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates – which are slowly grinding against each other, building up enormous seismic pressure.

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